I thought i would share the latest email from Enact who we work with on a regurlaly basis.
"The property market entered 2026 on a positive note, with record growth in January and continued confidence into early February. While recent global events have introduced some uncertainty, the market remains active and resilient, with many buyers and sellers continuing to move forward with their plans.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have influenced global energy prices, which in turn can affect inflation and borrowing costs. As a result, mortgage rates have begun to edge upwards after the reductions seen last year. While this shift may feel concerning, it reflects how closely the UK housing market responds to wider economic trends.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling this year, it’s completely natural to have questions about timing. Taking a closer look at what’s happening can help you feel more informed and confident about your next steps.
Why are global events affecting the property market?
Global events can have a ripple effect on the economy. Rising energy prices increase costs for households and businesses, which can keep inflation higher for longer.
When this happens, financial markets adjust their expectations. This can push up swap rates, which influence how much it costs lenders to fund mortgages. In turn, this affects fixed-rate mortgage pricing.
For the UK, this means the Bank of England may take a more cautious approach before reducing interest rates. While this can keep mortgage rates slightly higher in the short term, it also reflects efforts to maintain long-term economic stability.
Why are mortgage rates rising?
At the start of the year, expectations were more optimistic, with inflation easing and mortgage rates gradually falling. Although recent global developments have slowed that progress, the market is adapting rather than declining.
It’s important to remember that mortgage rates are not based solely on the Bank of England’s base rate. They are influenced by expectations about future trends. Right now, markets are factoring in the possibility that inflation may take longer to settle, which has led lenders to adjust their pricing.
Currently, fixed-rate mortgages are typically around 4.5% to 5.5%. While there is some week-to-week movement in pricing, this flexibility also means lenders are actively responding to changing conditions and continuing to offer a range of options.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers?
Affordability remains an important consideration, as higher rates can affect borrowing levels. However, the market is showing signs of stability rather than slowdown.
Demand continues, with mortgage approvals and transaction levels indicating a more measured, careful pace rather than a sudden drop-off. House prices are also holding up well overall.
For sellers, increased supply means more competition, particularly as some landlords bring properties to market ahead of the rental reform changes. While this may require more realistic pricing, it also reflects a healthy level of activity and choice within the market.
UK mortgage rate forecast: what happens next?
In the short term, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively steady, with some possible fluctuations as lenders respond to market conditions. Keeping informed and seeking advice can help buyers and sellers make the most of opportunities as they arise.
Looking ahead, there are positive signs. If global tensions ease and energy prices stabilise, inflation could begin to fall. This would give the Bank of England the opportunity to reduce interest rates, potentially allowing mortgage rates to move back toward the mid-4% range over time.
Even if conditions remain uncertain for longer, the market has already demonstrated its ability to adapt. Buyers, sellers and lenders continue to adjust, keeping the property market moving.
While global events are influencing mortgage rates, the UK property market remains active and resilient. With the right information and guidance, buyers and homeowners can still make confident, well-timed decisions in 2026."
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